• Aaron Sarfati

Curve Flattens! But Still A Long Way To Go...

As the curve starts to flatten around the world, governments, politicians, and everyday citizens are eager and anxious to return to "normal" life (whatever that means). However, while the curve of COVID-19 cases does appear to have started flattening on a worldwide level, there are still many pockets where the curve is rising. Until ALL pockets are controlled or an effective vaccine is mass-distributed, this pandemic will continue. Below we've taken some snapshots from our main dashboard to illustrate locations around the world. A few things to keep in mind:

  • The "Latest Stats" section is a current representation, as of approximately 7:00 PM UTC-5 on 4/19/2020

  • The GREEN line represents a 14 day rolling average of new cases. We want to see consistent trends below this line

  • The Case Fatality Rate is a simple calculation of Deaths ÷ Confirmed Cases. Because ACTUAL Case are likely orders of magnitude higher, the ACTUAL death rate is likely much lower

  • Charts are filtered to show only the last month. Go to to run the charts for yourself, for your location, for your selected timeframe.


Worldwide the curve has flattened, but there has not been a sustained dip in new cases. So while new cases are showing up in a non-exponential fashion, this pandemic continues to grow faster than average.


The curve has also flattened across the United States, the the last three days (and Sunday looks like it will grow as well) have been above the 14 day rolling average.


New York State continues to be hit hard by COVID-19. While the 14-day rolling average curve has flattened, every couple of days continues to show a new peak. New York has a long way to go.


New Jersey, along with New York, seems to have flattened the curve on average, through two of the highest days for new cases have come in the last week. Still some work to do in NJ.


California's 14-day rolling average curve appears to have flattened as well. New cases are staying pretty close to the average curve, meaning the growth rate appears to have steadied.


Texas appears to have hit its peak on April 9 with 1,424 cases reported. It has not exceeded 1,000 cases in a single day since, but the curve has not flattened yet. Texas is planning to re-open State Parks tomorrow (4/20), but it may be a bit premature.


Florida's curve has flattened and actually appears to be dipping a little bit, though Friday 4/17 was the second highest day for new cases on record. Florida is opening some of its beaches this weekend, but it also may be premature.


Louisiana, after having suffered two weeks of high cases, appears to be on the other side of the curve, with a noticeable dip in new cases. If it can maintain its current progress, it may be a leader in how to overcome the virus.


Illinois' curve has NOT flattened and appears to be steadily growing. The worst may yet still be to come for Illinois.


Michigan is showing a very noticeable dip in the 14-day rolling average curve, though there are still two mini-peaks in the last week. Still some work to do.


Massachusetts, similar to Illinois, appears to still be on a growth pattern. While there was a dip from Friday to Saturday, the overall 14 day rolling average is still growing. Social Distancing needs to continue strongly in MA.


Pennsylvania's 14-day rolling average curve appears to be flattening, through Saturday was the 3rd highest day on record for new cases, so mixed signals.


Oklahoma reported 0 new cases on Friday and Saturday, though it may be a reporting anomaly rather than tremendously good news. Still, OK shows a flattened curve and goods days may be ahead.


We'll briefly explore some pseudo randomly selected countries around the world to see how their curves are doing.


Israel, with strict shelter-in-place orders, appears to have not only flattened the curve, but is trending downward. Good news for the tiny country in the Middle East (along with several possible vaccines in various stages of development).


Canada appears to be showing a steady growth on their 14-day rolling average curve. It may be time to take some stricter measures to curb COVID-19's growth in Canada.


While Italy become the second epicenter of the pandemic, its curve has noticeably flattened and is now dipping. The number of daily cases is still extraordinarily high at over 3,000, but cases are on the way down and that's tremendously good news for a country hit extremely hard.


The UK, whose Prime Minister has recovered from COVID-19 but also delayed taking tangible mitigation strategies, is still rising in case count, with a slight uptick in the past couple of days. Stronger mitigation may still be necessary to curb COVID-19 in the UK.


Touted as a model for contact tracing, Singapore appears to have experienced a surge in new cases over the past week, and is nearing exponential growth.


Arguably the best prepared country for dealing with COVID-19, South Korea is showing tremendous results in its efforts to fight the virus. Not only has the curve flattened, but is trending way downward. Hopefully the rest of the world will follow in their footsteps soon.


Brazil, much like the UK, took a long time to implement any strict mitigation efforts. The result is now noticeable with a curve that is still growing.


Sweden is showing some average progress in the flattening the curve, though the last three days have not been positive news.


Japan is now in the throes of a second way with some recent upticks in new cases.


Mexico, while total cases relative to its neighbor to the North are much lower, is still growing at a fast pace. It will take some time for Mexico to flatten and lower its curve.

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