Search
  • Aaron Sarfati

Curve Flattens! But Still A Long Way To Go...

As the curve starts to flatten around the world, governments, politicians, and everyday citizens are eager and anxious to return to "normal" life (whatever that means). However, while the curve of COVID-19 cases does appear to have started flattening on a worldwide level, there are still many pockets where the curve is rising. Until ALL pockets are controlled or an effective vaccine is mass-distributed, this pandemic will continue. Below we've taken some snapshots from our main dashboard to illustrate locations around the world. A few things to keep in mind:


  • The "Latest Stats" section is a current representation, as of approximately 7:00 PM UTC-5 on 4/19/2020

  • The GREEN line represents a 14 day rolling average of new cases. We want to see consistent trends below this line

  • The Case Fatality Rate is a simple calculation of Deaths ÷ Confirmed Cases. Because ACTUAL Case are likely orders of magnitude higher, the ACTUAL death rate is likely much lower

  • Charts are filtered to show only the last month. Go to www.trackthecurve.com to run the charts for yourself, for your location, for your selected timeframe.


WORLDWIDE

Worldwide the curve has flattened, but there has not been a sustained dip in new cases. So while new cases are showing up in a non-exponential fashion, this pandemic continues to grow faster than average.


UNITED STATES

The curve has also flattened across the United States, the the last three days (and Sunday looks like it will grow as well) have been above the 14 day rolling average.


NEW YORK STATE


New York State continues to be hit hard by COVID-19. While the 14-day rolling average curve has flattened, every couple of days continues to show a new peak. New York has a long way to go.


NEW JERSEY

New Jersey, along with New York, seems to have flattened the curve on average, through two of the highest days for new cases have come in the last week. Still some work to do in NJ.


CALIFORNIA

California's 14-day rolling average curve appears to have flattened as well. New cases are staying pretty close to the average curve, meaning the growth rate appears to have steadied.


TEXAS

Texas appears to have hit its peak on April 9 with 1,424 cases reported. It has not exceeded 1,000 cases in a single day since, but the curve has not flattened yet. Texas is planning to re-open State Parks tomorrow (4/20), but it may be a bit premature.


FLORIDA

Florida's curve has flattened and actually appears to be dipping a little bit, though Friday 4/17 was the second highest day for new cases on record. Florida is opening some of its beaches this weekend, but it also may be premature.


LOUISIANA

Louisiana, after having suffered two weeks of high cases, appears to be on the other side of the curve, with a noticeable dip in new cases. If it can maintain its current progress, it may be a leader in how to overcome the virus.


ILLINOIS

Illinois' curve has NOT flattened and appears to be steadily growing. The worst may yet still be to come for Illinois.


MICHIGAN

Michigan is showing a very noticeable dip in the 14-day rolling average curve, though there are still two mini-peaks in the last week. Still some work to do.


MASSACHUSETTS

Massachusetts, similar to Illinois, appears to still be on a growth pattern. While there was a dip from Friday to Saturday, the overall 14 day rolling average is still growing. Social Distancing needs to continue strongly in MA.


PENNSYLVANIA

Pennsylvania's 14-day rolling average curve appears to be flattening, through Saturday was the 3rd highest day on record for new cases, so mixed signals.


OKLAHOMA

Oklahoma reported 0 new cases on Friday and Saturday, though it may be a reporting anomaly rather than tremendously good news. Still, OK shows a flattened curve and goods days may be ahead.


OTHER COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD

We'll briefly explore some pseudo randomly selected countries around the world to see how their curves are doing.


ISRAEL

Israel, with strict shelter-in-place orders, appears to have not only flattened the curve, but is trending downward. Good news for the tiny country in the Middle East (along with several possible vaccines in various stages of development).


CANADA

Canada appears to be showing a steady growth on their 14-day rolling average curve. It may be time to take some stricter measures to curb COVID-19's growth in Canada.


ITALY

While Italy become the second epicenter of the pandemic, its curve has noticeably flattened and is now dipping. The number of daily cases is still extraordinarily high at over 3,000, but cases are on the way down and that's tremendously good news for a country hit extremely hard.


UNITED KINGDOM

The UK, whose Prime Minister has recovered from COVID-19 but also delayed taking tangible mitigation strategies, is still rising in case count, with a slight uptick in the past couple of days. Stronger mitigation may still be necessary to curb COVID-19 in the UK.


SINGAPORE

Touted as a model for contact tracing, Singapore appears to have experienced a surge in new cases over the past week, and is nearing exponential growth.


SOUTH KOREA

Arguably the best prepared country for dealing with COVID-19, South Korea is showing tremendous results in its efforts to fight the virus. Not only has the curve flattened, but is trending way downward. Hopefully the rest of the world will follow in their footsteps soon.


BRAZIL

Brazil, much like the UK, took a long time to implement any strict mitigation efforts. The result is now noticeable with a curve that is still growing.


SWEDEN

Sweden is showing some average progress in the flattening the curve, though the last three days have not been positive news.


JAPAN

Japan is now in the throes of a second way with some recent upticks in new cases.


MEXICO

Mexico, while total cases relative to its neighbor to the North are much lower, is still growing at a fast pace. It will take some time for Mexico to flatten and lower its curve.


0 views

SUBSCRIBE VIA EMAIL

© 2020 by Sarfati Enterprises. Proudly created with Wix.com